Class Notes

1960

Mar/Apr 2002 Ken Reich
Class Notes
1960
Mar/Apr 2002 Ken Reich

These aren't easy times for many classmates, on the cusp of retirement when stocks are down, money market rates are low and some businesses are in the tank. So what is the advice of some leading class financial gurus?

We may only be passing over "an annoying speed bump," remarks Robert Armknecht, senior VP of Fleet Investment Advisors. Still, some of us "have reached the end of our economic productivity and are at a point we no longer can take risks. In terms of coping, I've tried to have a secure stream of income, whether it be a quasi annuity, a pool of money that would act like an annuity. It's awfully important to have (something) that will pay the mortgage."

Gus Leach remarks, "Anyone who's been unexpectedly adversely affected by recent events should review their situation in a very pragmatic and realistic fashion. Don't pull the wool over your own eyes. You owe it to yourself to explore all realistic options."

Hank Greer, retired CEO of SEI Investments, calls the present situation "scary. We have to look at tax-free municipals and really be cautious in equity markets now. We don't know the war's costs. I started going into fixed income investments. I've gone into munis. I don't trust the market."

Wes Roodhouse agrees. "We're at the end of the period where there was comfort in borrowing and investing in the stock market. There is no more monetary policy. It has exhausted itself. The tax refund was like pouring a glass of water into the ocean. And we're about out of fiscal policy too. I think it's 85 percent probability that we're going to go through the worst economic time of our life in the next two years. I feel terminate risk immediately."

But Joel Alvord, president of Shawmut Capital Partners, cautions: "Each person is different. While many have been terribly hurt in the investment business, it's hard to generalize because every case is so distinct. For those who are hurting in terms of cash flows, this is a difficult time. But rates are down, so it's not a bad time to remortgage your house. Be tough and don't be afraid to renegotiate previous commitments. Sometimes smaller banks will give you much more attractive terms."

Barry Mac Lean, president and CEO of MacLean-Fogg, observes, "Interest rates are the lowest in our business lives. Even with such low money costs, business is holding back on investments. This could prolong the recession." But, he adds, "Last time we were in a major recession we asked all our service suppliers for more relief. Lawyers, accountants, etc. all cut their bills by 10 percent or more. It works personally, too."

Roger Schaefer, vice president of U.S. Trust Co. of New jersey, is optimistic overall, but still feels "economic recovery will be pushed off to at least mid-'02. Don't panic. Stay the course. Where NOT to 100k—airlines, hotels, travel. Where TO 100k—health care, energy, defense, security, basic industry, railroads, certain technolos."

Early advisory: We are pushing our Home coming next fall forward to the Columbus Day Weekend, October 11-14.

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