Vanishing Indians?

Survey Shows College Fathers Not Replacing Selves

The following article has been preparedby the Population Reference Bureau ofWashington, D. C., among whose founderswas the late Dr. Raymond Pearl '99. TheBureau is a non-profit scientific educational organization for the purposes ofgathering, correlating and distributingpopulation data. Although Dartmouthstatistics are confined to the Classes of1921 and 1936, the general findings will beof interest to all alumni readers.

OUR paternal attention is requested for a discussion of a serious matter which pertains to the nation, to Dartmouth, and to you.

Last winter the Population Reference Bureau of Washington, D. C., brought attention to the problem of the diminishing birth rate among college graduates. With the unleashing of atoms, it is more than ever important to produce intelligent leaders to guide the country. Where could these better be found than among the descendants of Dartmouth? The inheritance of an able mind is assured by the fact that you survived the selective examinations for entrance and for graduation.* Stimulating surroundings and ample care for the children will be provided as you pass on all that Dartmouth gave to you. Because of this favorable combination of heredity and environment, the sources of future nation-builders lie within you and those like you, the college graduates of America. Are you doing your part?

The Population Reference Bureau says "No." It is estimated that 2.22 children must be born to allow a son to reach the age at which his father graduated. A survey of the Harvard sires of the 1860's revealed only 1.98 children per reporting graduate. By the turn of the century, this had fallen to 1.45. Progressing to the 1916-1920 classes of Harvard, it was discovered that 24 years after graduation they averaged 1.64 children per graduate. This is better than the 1890's but still indicates a marked deficit.

The figures are particularly alarming when viewed beside statistics from a survey in 1941 of nearly all the white women of Indianapolis. It was disclosed that those who were 40 to 44 years of age and married to men with less than 7 years of schooling had borne 4.1 children each, a reproductive rate more than 2.5 times as great as that of Harvard graduates of 1916-1920.

Cognizant of previous delinquencies among college fathers and curious about the present status of college graduates as parents, the Population Reference Bureau asked Sidney C. Hayward and Miss Charlotte Ford in your Alumni Office to make a count of the children of the gradu ates of 1931. Since this is the 25th reunion class, it is to be assumed that few additional children will be born to them. From the alumni files and from a class newsletter, fairly recent information was obtained for 93% of the class.

Dartmouth 1921 can be proud of the fact that 85% of their graduates are known to have married. Data were obtained concerning 239 of the 257 graduates, so that the rate of marriage among the communicative members was 92%. Casting a numerical eye on their progeny, we discover that the men of 1921 divulged 382 children, an average of 1.49 per graduate and 1.60 per reporting alumnus. The former value is unduly low because there probably were children born to the nonreporting men, and the latter value is unduly high since parental pride undoubtedly induces a higher proportion of response from those with children of whom they can boast. The true value for the class lies somewhere between the quoted ratios of 1.49 and 1.60. Unfortunately, even 1.60 is only 72% of the replacement level.

The same survey of the children of the graduates of 1921 was carried out in 28 other men's colleges, with ominous evidences of a deficit of the college stock on a nation-wide scale. In no college were sufficient children reported to indicate a replacement of the class. Questionnaires were sent to 4044 masculine graduates of 1921, and 2689 men responded, disclosing a total of 4745 children. Compared with Dartmouth's ratio of 1.60 children per graduate who replied, the overall average was 1.76 offspring per reporting graduate. Dartmouth is surpassed by Massachusetts Institute or Technology with 1.99 babies per responsive alumnus; Amherst and Oberlin with 1.88; Princeton (with a report from every member), 1.71; Cornell, 1.66; and Harvard (with 97% reporting), 1.63.

Even if we consider only the married graduates of Dartmouth '21, we find that although 83% of the marriages are known to be fertile they are leaving this planet without bequeathing a son apiece, for they bore only 1.74 children each. The 2.13 offspring per Dartmouth father still misses replacement, even without allowance for the unmarried and the infertile.

The relationship of Dartmouth to the less-educated group is shown in the pictograph. The ominous shrinkage in the number of children per Dartmouth graduate is still more alarming because of the bulging families of the 4th grade-or-less man. If these proportions continue, Dartmouth descendants threaten to disappear.

For more recent information, 1936, the tenth reunion class, was also reviewed through questionnaires. There is only 0.71 of a child for each of the 509 graduates. For those reporting, this rises to 0.77.75% and 82% of the two groups have assumed the matrimonial yoke, and 62% of the marriages proved fertile. These ten-year reports show 0.95 of a child per marriage and 1.54 children per parent. The averages for 1936 are approximately half of 1921's level, and ample productive years are left to enable complete replacement.

Dartmouth's ratio of 0.77 children per reporting graduate is below the 1.01 average for the 25 men's colleges where 1936 was surveyed. It is outnumbered by the University of Vermont with 1.56 by Wesleyan with 1.10, and by Cornell with 1.05.

The sum total is most discouraging, for the goal is to increase the percentage of our population consisting of intrinsically able people, and college fathers are falling quite short of even replacing themselves.

* For economic reasons, many who would have passed the test were not able to attempt it. It is certain, however, that the intelligence of those who do become degree-holders must be well above the average of the nation, and that on the average their children will follow their example.