Optimism Qualified

"The issue" between now and the year 2000, according to Herman Kahn, is "whether technological and economic growth tends to destroy and prosperity." Kahn and his Hudson Institute associates, physicist William Brown and political scientist Leon Martel '55, take issue with those who argue that limits on economic and population growth are urgently needed in order to avoid global catastrophe. They present a "scenario for America and the world" in which the problems of pollution, food, energy, raw materials, and population growth are depicted as "transitory issues of a transitory era." Qualified optimism, which they call realism, abounds.

In order to provide perspective on the limits-to-growth debate, the authors identify two "great watersheds of human history" - the industrial revolution (ca. 1800) and the agricultural revolution (ca. 8000 B.C.). The third great watershed, they say, will be the transition to "post-industrial society." The transition will be from a world in which human beings were "comparatively few, poor and at the mercy of the forces of nature" to one in which they will be "numerous, rich and in control of the forces of nature."

The authors carefully distinguish their view of the future from that of the neo-Maithusian limits-to-growth school of thought. Will economic growth eventually stop? Yes, but this will be more a matter of desire than necessity. Can technology solve more problems than it creates? Probably so, and anyway attempts to stop technological growth would probably create many problems also. Should we worry about depletion of nonrenewable resources? No, economics and technology can provide abundant raw materials for future generations. Is economic growth ruining the "quality of life"? Not on balance; indeed, this may be a meaning-less issue, since those who argue this way seem to be rationalizing their selfish class interests. Should we be concerned about the "gap" between rich and poor in the world? Quite the contrary, this gap actually benefits poor countries.

Although optimism sets the tone for the book, it is qualified by some somber warnings about impending energy shortages (temporary), resource scarcities, food distribution problems, and cataclysmic or irreversible damage to the environment. Although they clearly believe that environmentalists often voice exaggerated fears, they also believe that concern and prudence are warranted. "The more one is involved in such studies," they warn, "the more one tends to develop a sense of the 'fragility' of the environment."

Herman Kahn is always controversial. He has a way of attacking an unprotected intellectual flank using unconventional verbal weapons. He jolts, upsets, and titillates the imagination. No one ever thinks quite the same way about a problem after reading Kahn's treatment of it. If you are looking for soothing bedtime reading, forget this book. But if you are concerned about the world your grandchildren will inherit and if you don't mind having some of your pet ideas challenged, this book is highly recommended.

THE NEXT 200 YEARSBy Leon Martel '55,Herman Kahn, and William BrownMorrow 1976, 241 pp., $8.95

Government Professor Baldwin holds the JohnSloan Dickey Third Century chair. His primaryfield is international politics.