Malthus Repackaged
In commenting on the output of a distinguished committee which had been assembled by President Roosevelt in 1937 to predict forthcoming advances of the next decade, the late Adlai Stevenson said, "And I find myself on a par with the greatest scientific minds of the time - for I, too, failed to foresee nuclear energy, antibiotics, radar, the electronic computer, and rocketry."
Technological surprise is an essential and perhaps the most remarkable feature of a vigorously advancing technology. Nevertheless, and in spite of the long history of technological surprise, a substantial literature exists which has managed to neglect completely this abundantly evident historical fact. Perhaps the best known example is Malthus' 1798 Essay onPopulation. Observing that population growth has tended under some conditions to outrun food supply, Malthus sketches the immediate consequences for England as follows: "If we are not yet too well convinced of the reality of this melancholy picture, let us but look for a moment into the next period of twenty-five years; and we shall see twenty-eight millions of human beings without the means of support; and before the conclusion of the first century, the population would be one hundred and twelve millions and the food only sufficient for thirtyfive millions, leaving seventy-seVen millions unprovided for. In these ages want would be indeed triumphant, and rapine and murder must reign at large: and yet all this time we are supposing the produce of the earth absolutely unlimited, and the yearly increase greater than the boldest speculator can imagine."
It is worth remembering that both Darwin and Wallace acknowledged the stimulus that Malthus provided to the line of thought which led to the theory of evolution. On the other hand, the Malthus prediction about the future of England was much too pessimistic. Also, it is worth noting his protestation - perhaps "too much" - that he has given the possibilities for technological advance the benefit of all possible doubts. The point is that Malthus was wrong in assuming that he could set limits on future advances in technology and their consequences for England. Malthus is right when applied to species unable to reshape creatively their environment and themselves, but wrong when applied to an England which was vigorously creative and moving toward a new and larger world. A great divide was crossed when a creatively expanding, science-based technology first achieved growth greater than the population growth rate.
Today Malthus has been repackaged with computer technology as exemplified by TheLimits to Growth, and this "review" is stimulated by two recent extensions of this literature: Alternatives to Growth I, edited by Dennis L. Meadows, and Energy, A CriticalDecision for the United States Economy by Samuel M. Dix. Note that it is no more possible today to predict technological surprise than it was in 1937 or in 1798 when Malthus wrote, and so technological surprise is omitted from their consideration because otherwise very little could be said about the far future. What is described is a future without technological surprise, and it has been pointed out that sooner or later an industrial society decays by resource exhaustion and environmental pollution. It seems to this reviewer that this literature points out only the importance of stimulating creativity in science and technology so that the neo-Malthusians will prove to be no more accurate than Malthus. To sum it up, I propose that the message for the young in this time of powerful reaction against science-based technology should be:
A rise .creators of worlds yet unimagined You have nothing to lose but your limits.
ALTERNATIVES TO GROWTH - IEdited by Professor Dennis L. MeadowsBallinger, 1977. 448 pp. $16.50, $6.50ENERGY, A CRITICAL DECISIONBy Samuel M. Dix '39Dix Associates, 1977. 256 pp. $9.95
An overseer of the Thayer School, Kantrowitzis a physicist and a member of the AmericanAcademy of Engineering and the NationalAcademy of Scientists. He has taught atCornell, MIT, and Harvard and currentlyheads a research laboratory in Everett,Massachusetts.
