Fifteen Perestroikas

Prof Note

ACCORDING TO A DARTMOUTH SOVIET expert, the attempted coup of Mikhail Gorbachev last August paved the way for an economic and political restructuring of the Soviet Union as a loose confederation of republics, with Boris Yeltsin as its de facto leader.

George Demko, professor of geography and director of the Rockefeller Center, says that decision-making in all of the republics, including the independent Baltic states, will be decentralized from Moscow in effect creating 15 different versions of perestroika. "The political entity that replaces the old Soviet Union will evolve gradually, but the Russian Re public, sans Gorbachev, will call most of the shots," Demko predicts.

Leaders of the failed takeover, which Demko calls "the most sloppy, desultory coup I've ever seen," blundered in thinking there would be public support for a reassertion of Communist party strength with Gorbachev out of the way.

The hardliners also miscalculated the popular support Yeltsin had in major cities. Now, with Yeltsin in charge, the government is likely to privatize industry, accomplishing the economic reform that Gorbachev never managed. Notes Demko: "Perestroika is a promise that has never been fulfilled."

George Demko